Middle East Conflict Sparks Surge in Oil Prices. Stock futures fall, gold and dollar climb as traders gauge fallout.

Oil prices surged Sunday after the U.S. and Israel traded deadly blows with Iran across the Middle East, leaving Wall Street bracing for the economic fallout of an extended regional war.

Benchmark U.S. crude futures rose as much as 11%, trading as high as $75 a barrel, before retreating slightly. Brent futures, the global price gauge, jumped 8%, to roughly $79 a barrel. Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell around 1%. Changes in stock futures don’t always reflect market moves after the opening bell.

Tit-for-tat strikes in recent days have thrust one of the world’s key chokepoints for energy into the crossfire. As tanker operators scrambled for safety, momentarily snarling supplies of oil, natural gas and more, traders have waded into the fog of war across live social-media feeds and TV coverage.

Iranian officials and media in recent days have shared conflicting statements about whether Tehran intends to stymie sea traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a tactic that analysts say is likely designed to sow confusion. While there haven’t been concerted attacks on energy infrastructure so far, tanker-tracking firms say many companies have avoided traversing the narrow shipping route out of caution.

“The Iranians understand that the key sensitivity to the U.S. is the price of oil. They’re trying to increase the price,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.

“What they’re trying to do right now is create uncertainty about the safety of the waterway,” added Brew, an Iran specialist. “They want to maintain space up the escalatory ladder. They’re not going 100% immediately.”

Now, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the deaths of U.S. servicemembers is pushing the conflict into a perilous new phase.

Investors and politicians view a forced closure of the strait by Tehran as a scorched-earth tactic that would draw a furious military response. Even so, analysts at Barclays believe a prolonged conflict could put $100-a-barrel oil in play.

That type of price jump would push up the cost of fuel for cars, power plants and more the world over, rippling through the economy and markets. In a sign that investors are searching for safety, gold futures on Sunday climbed more than 2%.

“For equities and credit the impact [of the war] is negative, but only a severe and sustained oil disruption would imply substantial consequences for global growth,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Sunday. “We expect cyclical sectors and oil importers—some of which have had strong starts to the year and may face vulnerability from positioning adjustments—will likely see pressure unless a resolution occurs quickly.”

For weeks, as Washington massed forces in and around the Middle East, traders snapped up oil futures for fear of a conflict that could disrupt a roughly six-mile-wide shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas travel. Benchmark U.S. prices as of Friday had already jumped 20% from their early January lows.

That type of increase is normal when tensions flared with Tehran in recent years. But the tankers hauling oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz have never been disrupted at length.

Even last year, when Iranian officials reportedly threatened to choke off shipments through the waterway during a 12-day war between Iran and the U.S. and Israel, crude prices quickly retreated after the dust from the conflict had settled.

But the speed and severity of strikes by Israeli and American forces in recent days, as well as Iranian counterattacks on energy-export powerhouses lining the Persian Gulf, took some analysts by surprise. President Trump’s stated goal for regime change in the Islamic Republic has upped the ante.

ClearView Energy Partners opened a missive to clients this weekend with an ominous warning: This time could be different.

“[C]ivil strife in the wake of regime change also threatens to introduce chronic risk—inside Iran, and regionally—as factions jockey for power,” the analysts said. “In short, crude price premia could persist beyond the end of Israeli and U.S. combat operations.”

Oil prices’ recent climb suggests some wartime risks have already been priced in. Now, “the key question is when do vessels re-establish export flows,” said Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at energy consultant Wood Mackenzie.

Gelder added that a full resumption of shipments from countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq could take weeks, even in an optimistic scenario in which Tehran agrees to cooperate with Washington’s demands over its nuclear program.

“During that time, oil prices are heavily risked to the upside,” Gelder said. Analysts say a sustained disruption of Qatari natural gas could similarly boost prices for the heating and power-generation fuel.

Should the worst-case scenarios play out, Americans could face higher prices at the pump heading toward midterm elections, pressuring Trump’s affordability push. But the energy-hungry economies of Asia and Europe could pay an even steeper cost.

In a note to clients Sunday, Evercore analysts said a weekslong oil-price run-up to roughly $80 or $85 a barrel “would leave only a small impact on the global economy and very little on the U.S.”

The impacts would snowball with a more sustained or severe move. “The risk case of $100-120 oil is in our mind qualitatively different,” Evercore wrote. “The price shock would be much more material, raising risks to inflation expectations.”

#Gaza's ceasefire had some momentum. Now, some fear a new war will distract the #world.

Residents say they are scared of neglect and deprivation, with Israel in the wake of the weekend strikes closing all crossings into their shattered territory of over 2 million people.

Palestinians told The Associated Press they were rushing to markets, haunted by memories of painful food scarcity last year under months of Israel’s blockade. Part of Gaza, around Gaza City, was found to be in famine.

“When the crossings shut down, everything was suspended from the market,” said Osamda Hanoda from Khan Younis. “The prices go up, and people live in misery.”
Reports show prices of goods rising sharply

The shaky Israel-Hamas ceasefire had led to more humanitarian aid and other supplies entering Gaza, even as the United Nations and aid partners say more of everything from basic medical supplies to fuel is needed.

Now, Palestinians are hoarding again, with reports of prices rising sharply for basic goods such as bags of flour.

“We are afraid of not finding milk” and diapers for the kids, or food and water, said Hassan Zanoun, who was displaced from Rafah.

COGAT, the Israeli military body overseeing civilian affairs in Gaza, did not respond to a request for comment Sunday. In its announcement of the closings, it asserted that the food supply inside the territory “is expected to suffice for an extended period.” It added that the rotation of humanitarian workers in and out of Gaza is postponed.

It was not clear when any crossing might reopen. Israeli authorities focused on Iran, and citizens dashed repeatedly for shelter as sirens wailed.
Ramadan is disrupted

The war in Gaza began with the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and it’s been marked from the start by restrictions on people and supplies being allowed into the territory — and terrified people, including medical evacuees in need of treatment, getting out.

A month ago, Gaza’s main Rafah border crossing with the outside world — its only crossing not with Israel — reopened, allowing a small and tightly controlled flow of Palestinian traffic in both directions. No cargo was allowed through.

Now all crossings are closed again in the middle of the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a time of chosen deprivation, evening feasts and prayer. Images have shown Palestinians lined up at long tables in the middle of bombed-out debris.

The strikes on Iran shook that routine.

“All the people rushed to markets, and they all wanted to shop and hide,” said Abeer Awwad, who was displaced from Gaza City, as word of the explosions in Tehran began to spread.

Under the Oct. 10 U.S.-brokered ceasefire, the heaviest fighting has subsided, though regular Israeli fire continues in Gaza. The U.N. World Food Program has noted progress in the enclave but said in its latest food security analysis last week that hunger remains.

“Households reported an average of two meals per day in February 2026, compared to one meal in July,” it said. ”Still, one in five households consumed only one meal daily.”
A challenge for aid groups and others

Refocusing the world’s attention on Gaza is a challenge for aid groups and others as Iran scrambles for new leadership and explosions continue in Tehran, Israel and around the Middle East.

Trump has said bombing in Iran could continue through the week or longer, and warned Tehran of “A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!” if it escalates attacks.

It’s a dramatic turn from Trump’s launch less than two weeks ago of his new Board of Peace, a gathering of world leaders that is aimed at ending the war in Gaza but has ambitions of resolving conflicts elsewhere.

Even with that bump in momentum on Gaza, major challenges remain for the ceasefire. They include disarming Hamas, assembling and deploying an international stabilization force, and getting a newly appointed Palestinian committee meant to govern Gaza into the territory.

As the Middle East turns to another war, some Palestinians see a benefit: Israel’s military is distracted.

“The good thing is that the sound of booms and demolitions is rare now near the yellow line,” said Ahmed Abu Jahl, of Gaza City, speaking about the line dividing Gaza and marking out roughly half the territory controlled by Israeli forces.

“Even the drones, they are still flying overhead, but their number has gone down.”

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Wafaa Shurafa, Toqa Ezzidin And Cara Anna, The Associated Press

Ezzidin reported from Cairo and Anna from Lowville, New York.

Ten countries in the Middle East, including Israel, have been affected by Iranian strikes in response to the joint US-Israeli military operation, according to calculations by TASS.

Namely, Bahrein, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, where US military bases are stationed, came under Iranian missile and drone attacks. Iran mostly targeted the Jewish state in launching its airstrikes. Air defenses in Syria, too, took part in repelling Iranian missile strikes, as residents in Damascus reported several explosions, according to media reports. Iran said the attacks were not aimed at its neighbors but exclusively targeted Iran and US military bases in the Middle East.

On February 28, the US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, have been hit. The Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, the Iranian Armed Forces’ elite unit) announced a large-scale retaliatory operation.

#Pezeshkian Strongly Condemns #US-Israeli #Attack on Minab School, “This savage act adds another black page to the record of countless crimes by the aggressors, a memory that will never be erased from our nation’s history,” the president said in a message on Saturday.

On Saturday morning, the Israeli regime targeted the Shajareh‑Tayyebeh Girls’ Elementary School. The death toll has risen to at least 108 students killed and 92 others injured, local authorities said.

Some victims remain trapped under the rubble, and rescue efforts are ongoing.

Pezeshkian expressed deep condolences to the families of the victims and the nation. “I share the heavy sorrow of the victims’ families, the noble people of Minab, and all of #Iran, and I stand with them in this grief.”

He also called on rescue, medical, and relevant authorities to mobilize all resources and to prioritize “immediate and continuous assistance to the injured and the families of the fallen.”

Iranian state television confirmed Khamenei's death after President Trump earlier declared it.

The U.S. and Israel launched a series of strikes against Iran that targeted its leadership and military assets. Dubbed Operation Epic Fury, the combat operation triggered a retaliatory barrage of Iranian missiles and drones at Israel and U.S. bases throughout the region. Republican lawmakers praised the military operation while Democrats called the attacks “illegal.”

Trump said the bombing, launched by sea and air-based platforms, will continue “uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary.”

Iran targeted Gulf countries hosting U.S. bases. The U.S. military intercepted multiple Iranian missiles, though an Iranian strike on a U.S. military base in Bahrain damaged facilities.

Tankers diverted from the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices have been rising over fears of conflict.

The strikes on Iran were planned under the guise of talks with Tehran, a tactic that the West has already tried with the Minsk agreements, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

"There was no talk of Iran withdrawing from the negotiations or taking any drastic steps, so these strikes were planned, as many people have said today, both here and abroad, under the guise of negotiations allegedly being conducted by those who carried out the strikes," she said on the Soloviev Live TV channel. "In other words, we are seeing this tactic again. It has already been tested and used for many years when Westerners talked about the Minsk agreements," the diplomat pointed out.

The spokeswoman recalled that, with regards to the Minsk agreements, the West had repeatedly said that "consultations are needed on how they are implemented, that Russia needs to comply with them even more, that negotiations are needed." "And then, they suddenly admitted that they had deceived everyone and were actually leading the way to the militarization of the Kiev regime," Zakharova recalled.
About strikes on Iran

The US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on Saturday. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, have been hit. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, elite units of the Iranian Armed Forces) announced a large-scale retaliatory operation. There were reports of missiles and drones being launched from Iran, and air-raid alert sirens sounded in the Tel Aviv area. According to the Mehr news agency, US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also targeted. Regional countries are closing their airspace, and airlines are suspending flights.

#RABAT, February 28. The son-in-law of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei, as well as his wife, were killed in missile strikes on the capital of the Islamic Republic, according to a spokesperson for the Tehran mayor’s office.

"Khamenei's son-in-law and daughter-in-law were killed in an explosion," Al Hadath TV quoted him as saying.

Earlier reports indicated that the Iranian supreme leader was at the crisis headquarters, as during the war in the summer of 2025, personally directing military operations.

The US and Israel have launched a military operation against Iran. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, have been hit. The White House said the move was prompted by missile and nuclear threats allegedly originating from Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a large-scale retaliatory operation.

#UK PM Starmer announces that the United Kingdom has entered the #WAR against Iran:

"Our forces are active and British planes are in the sky today, as part of co-ordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests and our allies."

#Iran is not #Venezuela

The Iranian side announced two things:

1. The Iranian #missile attack resulted in the deaths of approximately 200 American soldiers.

2. Iranian missiles destroyed an A/N FPS-132 Block 5 radar system, an advanced phased-array radar system deployed by US forces in Qatar. This #radar has a detection range of 5,000 kilometers, and its primary mission is to provide early warning of ballistic missiles to the United States and Israel.

Didn't the kidnapping of Maduro without any casualties give Trump excessive confidence?

Read Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a recorded message released Saturday morning that the attacks will let Iranians “take their fate into their own hands” and that Israel plans the current operation to be “much more powerful” than the bruising 12-day war Israel launched against Iran in June.

He spoke in Hebrew. Here’s an English-language transcript of Netanyahu’s address:

“My brothers and sisters, citizens of Israel. A short while ago, Israel and the United States embarked on a joint campaign, Operation Lion’s Roar. The aim of the operation is to put an end to the threat from the Ayatollah regime in Iran. At this time, the IDF is striking targets of the oppressive regime, facilities of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, and together with the United States military, ballistic missile sites that threaten both Israel and U.S. forces. This operation will continue as long as necessary. For 47 years, the evil regime in Iran has called for death to Israel, death to America.

It trampled on the citizens of its country, it instilled fear in the peoples of the region, it spread a vast network of terror across the entire world, it invested enormous resources to develop atomic bombs and tens of thousands of missiles intended, as it defined it, to erase Israel from the map of the world. It also armed the terrorist proxies around us in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Judea and Samaria, and it shed our blood.

But if anyone needed further proof of the murderous nature of the Ayatollah regime, they received it last month. Because we all saw how this tyrannical regime in Tehran carried out an unprecedented mass slaughter of its own citizens in Iran. It cold-bloodedly murdered thousands of children, adults and the elderly. Tens of thousands were arrested, tortured and humiliated. And why? Just because they sought lives of freedom and dignity.

In the Revival War and Operation Rising Lion our heroic soldiers struck a decisive blow against the Ayatollah regime and its proxies. But the wounded predator has not ceased its attempts to recover, for the same purpose, to destroy us.